by Robert Anthony August 19th 2024
While I am not an expert on all things Russia, I have lived in Russia for a short time, I have preached at dozens of Slavic churches over the years and have many Ukrainian and Russian friends who I regularly chat with. So here's my question, since when has aggression with Russia ever provoked them to stand down? The narrative about the Ukrainian invasion into Russia is, “Well, now we will have something to negotiate with to get our land back…”. But I will repeat, name the one time throughout Russia’s history that they ever backed down from a fight? Ever!?
This is this a delusion thinking that invading Russia’s sovereign territory will somehow convince them, “No, You guys are right, We don't want war afterall. Here, Here is your battered and decimated Ukraine. You can have it back.”. The problem with this absurd logic is that Russia obviously thinks, war is in fact the answer, Remember? THEY STARTED THE WAR in the first place!? And Ukraine may have just accidentally given Russia the pretext that they have needed to assemble, compulsory or otherwise, all the troops they could ever want, to war.
The rhetoric will soon start, “My fellow Russians! You see what the west is doing!? They were at our doorstep with NATO but now they have burst into the living room!” And Putin will use this, soon enough, barring a miracle, as his much-needed political ammunition to amass the largest standing army Russia has had since World War 2.
Having said that, I don’t want to be overly critical of President Zelensky and his team. In fact any criticism I have would be directed to President Z’s funding and backing partners. Ukraine is entirely hamstrung by the will of European and Western powers - America perhaps leading the pack? Ukrainian leadership has only a few decisions to make here. It's very possible that all things considered, they just made the best decision they could for their nation. Perhaps, seeing the inevitability of their demise (they haven't had any gains for quite a while), Ukraine never able to launch the counter-offensive that they were hoping for, perhaps this is the best solution they could come up with? Maybe this "Hail Mary" was the best option that the Ukrainian brass could agree on, all things considered? It's easy to sit in the comfort of suburban America and criticize the acts of another nation at war, thousands of miles away. Truly this is not my intention. Instead, I do hope that this concept can somehow get before European and US leadership that they might consider a new strategy with Ukraine (but it could very well be too late)? Because this regional war is very likely about to spiral out of control now… considering... again, Russia has never backed down from a fight. Study history. Never. Russia will never be man-handled, pushed around or provoked without a response.
I have long considered, what is Putin hoping to gain from this war in Ukraine? But today, while emailing with a friend in Russia, it hit me! Putin might feel as though he is responding, or reacting rather than looking for “gains”. I emailed this to my friend, “The cold war gave way not to peace but a new kind of unconventional warfare between the east and the west. What was once a nuclear arms race and proxy wars has morphed into unconventional economic and technology warfare, for over the past couple decades at least. It’s not that there was ever really peace between the east and the west but a shifting in warfare strategies.”
Why is this important to unpacking Putin’s aspirations in Ukraine? Because I’m not sure Putin really has aspirations with Ukraine as if to achieve territorial gains. Is it possible that Russia/Putin, perhaps feeling out-maneuvered and even being boxed-in by western sanctions and all of the other unconventional victories the west has been scoring against the Russian Bear, Russia/Putin responded with what was the only weapon left in its arsenal, a boots-on-the-ground conventional war. Having been looking at this situation from every angle for a few years now, this seems to be the only logical explanation: Putin (and his Russia) is simply refusing to surrender to the west's hegemony and is sending a very loud and clear warning with his Ukraine war, “Russia will not surrender to you. Period.”. If this is in fact the case, Putin is a rather impressive leader. He started with a long round of warnings in eastern Ukraine and then finally took Crimea, messaging rather clearly, “Russia will not be bullied. But we would rather not go to war.” It seems maybe he found a modicum of hope in President Trump and was willing to pause, showing the western-world that Russia can be reasoned with, if only the west would also become reasonable…
To me, these are desperate acts what Putin is doing in Ukraine. There is nothing for him to gain, there is no way he is thinking he can retain power over a Ukrainian people who still remembers all too clearly the horrors they lived under during Russian/Soviet occupation. He must know he just started another forever war - can he possibly think that the west going to merely hand over Ukraine!? So I ask myself, why? Why would he do something so desperate and illogical? But if his goal is not to retake Ukraine but push back on western powers and their (our) world order, suddenly Russia’s Ukraine war makes sense, at least to Putin.
Regardless, Putin's invasion is still quite a desperate act and yet this seems to be the summary of the entirety of the history of nations. When nations finally feel as though they have exhausted the ability to negotiate and compromise, when unconventional warfare fails, armies are assembled and the desperation plays out on the battle field, as each nation trades the lives of their youth to win the advantage. (I basically just summarized most of the 20th Century.)
It would have been wonderful if these elites had learned the lesson from World War 1 or WW2, or Vietnam, or Afghanistan, etc. But no. As the nation’s prepare for WW3, it seems clear to me that the lesson was not learned, or perhaps the evil lurking in dark and shadowy places is simply too cunning for the good men of the world to outmaneuver?
In closing, my prediction is that Ukraine’s invasion into Russia will prove to be merely the next event that brought us into the Third World War. Is Russia planning and plotting together with Iran in the Middle East? We know North Korea has troops working with Russia in Ukraine. China continues aggressive moves in that South China Sea, around Taiwan, etc. Seems the new axis and allies are forming. And Turkey is NATO, are you sure? Alarming to watch the alliances shift as the days are progressing. I wonder if there is anything that can convince the nations away from the precipice? I do believe in miracles and that is about what it will take for the world to escape this impending, certain destruction, consistently heading our way.
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