(By Guest Contributor, Tony Nastas, Chernivtsi, Ukraine. Tony is a preacher, a businessman, a husband, a father of two sons, a patriot and a sincere follower of Jesus Christ.) It seems that everything is ready for the Ukrainian counter offensive. But…
NATO allies informed that they have sent 98% of all the promised/needed equipment to Ukraine already. Almost 100% but not quite. So, it means that Ukraine doesn’t have all the means that are needed for a successful result. Would you go to an important military operation that lacks some tiny bits? Would you rely your life on the 98% or would you wait for the remaining 2% to have the minimal level of preparation? Or would you rather go under-armored?
How many of us regretted making some rush decisions in our personal life? I wish I had waited longer so many times! It would have given me more time to think, analyze and get prepared better. I would have done so much wiser.
Right now Ukraine has some psychological advantage because the enemy doesn’t know where Ukraine is going to hit, where the main attack will happen, which attack will be misleading, etc. It’s all about strategy. It has always been so that the offensive side has an advantage on the battlefield because it sets the rules.
I wish you knew the Russian language, because when I listen to Russian military experts, they all are very uncertain, some are panicking*. They know Ukraine has always conducted its counter offensives in an unexpected way. Remember the Kharkiv counter offensive last fall while Ukrainians had been trumpeting about their counter offensive in Kherson for several months before that?
As a result both liberating operations were successful, first in Kharkiv and then in Kherson regions.
That wears the Russians out. They don’t know whether Ukraine is going to start on May 9, when Russia celebrates their WW2 Victory day. Because they really like to dedicate their attacks to some meaningful dates for them. But would Ukrainians do the same?
Ukrainians do not pick up meaningful or symbolic dates. They just destroy the enemy when they are ready and when they can.
Before any attack Ukraine usually weakens the enemy by destroying their fuel and ammunition depots first. Wouldn’t you do the same? Obviously it’s easier to defeat an uncertain and weakened enemy.
Then Ukraine hits their command units. But not only that!
The longer Ukraine awaits, the more turbulent Russia becomes from inside. I doubt the American mass media tells that but there are five groups in Russia that have already started fighting with each other for power after Putin is killed, gone or defeated:
FSB - Russian abbreviation of their Federal Security Service. It is responsible for Russian borders, all kinds of defense inside the country. Their speaker is retired officer Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov**), who started the war in 2014 and shot the Malaysian MH77 airplane on 17 July 2014 killing 298 people***.
MOD - Ministry of Defense. They mostly fight with the first and third groups for influence inside Russia and within Putin's personal circle. They want to show that they have more power by having the army and armor arsenal at their own disposal.
PMC - Private Military Companies. There are about six of them right now. But the most known is the Wagner Group. Their owner Eugene Prigozhin blackmails the MOD that he will withdraw his troops from Bakhmut on May 10, if he is not given enough ammunition and artillery shells. In his videos he directly uses curse words and personally uses bad names for the minister of Russian defense and their head general Gerasimov.
A few weeks ago another group of retired officers and generals came up. They are not only blaming Putin for everything that's going on but have already chosen their own candidate for the next president. None of the listed groups has dared to make such a bold step so far.
And the weakest groups of all are so called liberals. They consist of pro-democratic people who try to come up with a common idea on how to dethrone Putin. But most of them fled from Russia and are scattered around in Western countries. There are still many disagreements and fights within that group. They organize many conferences in Europe, have a lot of talks and discussions. But right now they look more like a motley blanket.
So, these groups, especially the first four of them, are framing and blaming each other. That is exactly what we need. You know, when a country is divided, it becomes weak. I know that you understand what I am talking about because what’s going between the Republicans and Democrats today doesn’t make the US stronger. Only a united nation can defeat any enemy.
So, when will the Ukrainians start the counter offensive? - As soon as our military and political leaders see it’s the right time to hit our enemy as hard as we can with the available human resources, armor and intelligence data about our weakening from inside enemy.
That way the spring counter-offensive can easily become a summer counter-offensive. Because we value the life of every Ukrainian soldier. We don’t have an abundance of them as Russia does.
Two of my friends were killed in action just last week. Their names were Mykola and Gennadiy. My heart is full of tears. I am grateful for their service and sacrifice they made.
Keep us in prayers. I can hear air raid sirens just started (again)…